Belmont Stakes Post Analysis 2006

Doghouse Confidential Belmont Stakes 2006

Belmont Stakes 2006 Results Chart

As always, these Triple Crown races are very difficult, and finding horses that will go the 11/2 mile Belmont is tricky.  However, sticking with our energy distribution numbers (less than 68%) and our final three furlong times (less than 38 seconds), we hit our safe bet boxing the four horses for a nice $92 exacta for our $24 investment.

While our second choice won (Jazil at a winning mutuel of $14.40), our first choice, Sunriver, ran third.  And we were beaten by the same horse that spoiled our exacta in the Derby, Bluegrass Cat.  I had the exacta three times, so I made about $50 based on my bets.

Our analysis of the race and how it was run was right on the mark.  We thought that Bob and John would run to the lead, be challenged by High Finance and then fade which he did.  The only disappointment was that Sunriver whom we thought could run 1 1/4 miles, didn't have the final push for the final quarter to win.  We did think that Jazil would do well, but having the wrong running style, we thought that he would come 2nd.  He showed earlier speed as we thought, and closed well to win.  A very good horse and excellent ride from our old friend, Fernando Jara.  Kiaran McLaughlin did a great training job.

That's the good news.  We hit the exacta at a very nice payoff.  The rest of my bets didn't cash.  However, we had the top four finishers in the exacta box, so anyone who boxed all four in the $2 triple and the superfecta would have cashed $436 and $1085 respectively.  We can't do any better picking the horses.  We can do better betting them correctly, and that is the difficulty with making money at the races.

Good going to all who cashed, and I hope that many of you boxed more than the exacta!

Mr. X

Triple Crown Post Analysis 2006