The Doghouse Confidential
by Mr. X   Mr. X

Back when I was a young boy in Haverhill, MA, I dreamed of hitting it big and making a name for myself in the world of horse racing. Now, as an adult, I have adopted the moniker "Mr. X," and regularly publish the Doghouse Confidential, a tip sheet for Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, NY. I still dream of hitting it big...


The Doghouse Confidential is named for the doghouse on an oil and gas drilling rig. It has nothing to do with Mrs. X.  Basically, my office asked me for a tip sheet when we went to Saratoga as a group.  The tip sheet was really meant to be a joke, designed to help some of the group who knew nothing about horseracing and betting.  After a couple of very successful years on office track day, I discovered that handicapping away from the track and writing my thoughts on paper helped me to organize and to stay away from impulse bets.  In short, I had done all of the handicapping the night before, leaving me time at the track to focus on the betting and drinking mandatory beer.

My strengths in handicapping races and type of bets are as follows:

Races Best Good Fair
Dirt Sprints XX
Dirt 9f X
Dirt 10f X
Turf Sprints X
Turf Routes X
Win X
Exactas X
Triples X
Pick 3-4 X

 My philosophy and betting strategies are to go for the big hit.  Big hits, big losses.  You would think that I would learn that you need to spread, but I haven’t learned that lesson after 45 years of betting.  Rarely do I bet a three horse exacta box.  It is almost always a two horse box with double the amount on the exacta that I think will win.  There are some days where I will not cash a ticket betting my own selections on the Doghouse.  However, on the same day, it is not unusual for others to box my three selections for a $1 each and collect two or three exactas and leave the track with $100 or more for the day.

The Doghouse is just an effort to have fun while, at the same time, hopefully cashing some tickets.  It does represent what I will bet almost exclusively. (I learned some time ago to follow my own sheet and not change my mind at the track after some costly lessons).

The Doghouse is available only for the days that I go to the track or if I'm betting the entire card from home, and it is usually available at 10 a.m. on the morning of the races.  For other big race days, I will also post a sheet (Triple Crown, Breeder’s Cup, etc.).  Have fun!

2015 Derby Probables Categorized by Energy Distribution and Last Three Furlong Times (4/28/15)

2014 Derby Probables Categorized by Energy Distribution and Last Three Furlong Times (4/21/14)

2014 Kentucky Derby Doghouse Confidential

2013 Kentucky Derby Doghouse Confidential

2013 Derby Probables Categorized by Energy Distribution and Last Three Furlong Times (4/19/13)

Kentucky Derby 2010 Analysis (4/18/10 as seen on "Trackfacts Live", updated 4/29/10))

Doghouse Confidential Archives and Racing Links

My Racing Calendar