Preakness Post Analysis 2007

Doghouse Confidential Preakness 2007

Preakness 2007 Results Chart

After watching the replay a countless number of times, I still can't believe that Street Sense was caught after cruising by Curlin at the top of the lane.   All of my bets went down the drain: the $40 exacta, $2 triple, a $20 double, and a $1 Pk4, (the latter two were not on the Doghouse).  Even Mrs. X, who has little sympathy for my bets, was unusually unhappy.  Perhaps it's because I hired her to root for me at 25% of net profits.

We had most things right, but didn't cash.  Xchanger went to the lead on a speed favoring track, but Dominguez put up ridiculous fractions, so I knew we had no chance of hitting the big exacta.  Hard Spun, however, did tire and fade as we expected in the last furlong.  So that left us with our third choice, Curlin, and Street Sense, which was our second highest exacta bet.  We did think that Curlin would  improve.  After viewing the replay, I have to think that Calvin turning around on the horse in the stretch gave the wrong message to Street Sense who seemed to ease up.  Circular Quay did his usual thing and lugged up to be 5th out of nine horses.

Curlin did look good, but he is still learning.  I thought that he raced greenly in the stretch and only got to business after Street Sense and Calvin took a nap.  Curlin could be an outstanding horse on the improve from here.

Let's hope that some of you boxed the horses that we selected instead of betting Street Sense on top of all tickets as I did.  And let's hope that you cashed.  We can't come much closer to winning.

The Belmont will be a grudge match between Curlin and Street Sense along with some long-winded horses back to try again at 12f.   It is likely going to be a good betting race.

Mr. X

Belmont Stakes