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Triple Crown Post Analysis 2007
 

We did very well again with our energy distribution and final furlong numbers leading us to the final finishers in all three Triple Crown races. Below are the results:

Race Mr. X Choice Finish Payoff Comments
Kentucky Derby Street Sense -1 Won $11.80 Hit exacta ($101.80) 5 times for $510. Hit $1 triple 5 horse box for half of $440. Won $500 for the race. Hit safe bet exacta.
Tiago - 2 7th All top three finishers met energy distribution, final 3 furlong time. No throwout finished anywhere close.
Preakness Street Sense - 1 2nd Caught by Curlin. Only bet Street Sense on top. Lost $200+.
Xchanger -2 8th $27.80 Led through too fast fractions, tired badly.
Belmont Stakes Curlin - 1 2nd Caught by Rags to Riches ($10.60) on soft pace.
Tiago - 2
Rags to Riches - 2		 3rd, Won Hit exacta ($25.20) 15 times for $378, winning $200. Hit safe bet exacta. All four choices finished 1-2-3-4.  Did not bet triple ($131.50), superfecta ($242.50).

We liked Street Sense from the beginning, and were rewarded by his Derby win. Our numbers showed that the Tampa Bay Derby race was the fastest of the year for the three year olds. All of our top three horses met our energy distribution and final furlong numbers in the Derby, and in 2006, the top five finishers met the criteria. So I think it is evident that our system of separating contenders using the criteria works.

In the Preakness, I still can't believe that Curlin beat Street Sense, and I continue to blame Calvin Borel for his premature celebration that caused Street Sense to ease enough to get beat.

In the Belmont Stakes, we had all four of our choices finish 1-2-3-4 as they did in 2006 as well.  Unfortunately, we didn't box the four in the triple or the superfecta for the second year in a row. We did hit the exacta 15 times, so all was not lost. Rags to Riches needed a soft pace to win and got it.

It amazes me that I wrote the same thing last year about the need to box horses in the Triple Crown races which I did not do again this year. Check out the Triple Crown Analysis for 2006.

However, on the much more positive side, we are now only a head away (2007 Preakness) from hitting the last six Triple Crown races! The system works, and we have had some great luck. You need it in the big races, especially the Derby. Maybe this year we can keep the streak going!

Mr. X