SOVAS.NET
| Belmont Stakes Post Analysis 2007 | ||
Only a seven horse race but very tricky. Curlin was the one to beat. We expected Tiago to close, and he did, although somewhat behind the top two. Rags To Riches ($10.60) loved the very soft pace and won by a neck over Curlin. We correctly thought that Hard Spun would fade, and he did. Our energy distribution numbers pointed to only these four, and they finished one, two, three, and four. Unfortunately, I did not bet the triple ($131.50) with the top three or the superfecta ($242.50), both of which paid generously in a seven horse field. The pace of the race was really strange and certainly helped Rags To Riches in favor of both Curlin and Tiago who wanted a fast pace. Gomez held Hard Spun throughout even though the six furlong time went in 1:15.32! We thought that Curlin might bounce, and while I have not seen the Beyer numbers, I am certain that it cannot be good because of the slow pace. [Surprising Beyer of 107 for Rags To Riches!] Now for the good news. We hit our safe bet by boxing the top three horses in the exacta ($25.20): spent $30, received $63. We'll take it in a short field. I bet what I said I would, so while I didn't hit my first choices of Curlin over Rags To Riches and Tiago, I did hit the reverse. So in total, I hit the exacta 15 times for a payoff of $378 on a $180 investment. Won $200. While it wasn't a monster payoff, you need to take what they give you - a lot better than losing money on a longshot with no chance. We are now a head away (Curlin over Street Sense in the Preakness) from winning the last six triple crown races. Not bad. Good going to all who cashed the exacta box, and hopefully, some boxed the triple. Mr. X |
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