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Contenders as of April 1, 2008
Here is a list of
primary Kentucky Derby Future Wager contenders based on 3f final time
and energy distribution. There was no consideration of final
time. I will add and subtract horses as time passes. What
is interesting are the horses that are missing from the list because
they have not shown that they want to run longer. They may be
added in the future, but this is the list in alphabetical order as of
the above date:
Tier I
| Name |
Last Race |
Dist |
3f Final Time (sec) |
Energy Distribution |
| Colonel John (p) |
3/1/08 |
9f |
36.0 |
65.99% |
| Court Vision |
2/24/08 |
9f |
37.8 |
67.64% |
| El Gato Malo (p) |
3/1/08 |
9f |
35.9 |
65.88% |
(p) Polytrack or artificial surface
Tier II
| Name |
Last Race |
Dist |
3f Final Time (sec) |
Energy Distribution |
| Blackberry Road |
3/8/08 |
8.5f |
37.4 |
66.87% |
| Bob Black Jack (p) |
3/15/08 |
8.5f |
36.7 |
65.84% |
| Gayego (p) |
3/15/08 |
8.5f |
36.6 |
65.81% |
| Pyro |
3/8/08 |
8.5f |
36.5 |
66.09%
|
| Tale of Ekati |
3/8/08 |
8.5f |
37.4 |
66.82% |
| Visonaire |
2/9/08 |
8.5f |
36.1 |
65.68% |
| Yankee Bravo |
3/8/08 |
8.5f |
36.4 |
66.03% |
The
Tier II horses at this point make the numbers at 8.5f but need to meet
the criteria at 9f. The lower the energy distribution, the better the
chances of making 10f. Note Street Sense last year who had an energy
distribution at 8.5f of less than 66%.
Tier III
| Name |
Last Race |
Dist |
3f Final Time (sec) |
Energy Distribution |
| Fierce Wind |
2/16/08 |
8.5f |
37.3 |
67.24% |
| Smooth Air |
2/16/08 |
8.5f |
37.3 |
67.22% |
| Z Fortune |
2/9/08 |
8.5f |
36.2 |
65.95% |
| Majestic Warrior |
3/8/08 |
8.5f |
38.3 |
67.50% |
The top three Tier III horses met the criteria at 8.5f but both
Fierce Wind and Smooth Air failed at 9f in the Florida Derby. Z Fortune
made the numbers in February but failed on 3/15/08 at 8.5f at Oaklawn
Park. Majestic Warrior meets the energy number but fails at the final
3f time.
Here are the horses that haven't made it thus far:
Big Brown, Cool Coal Man, Denis of Cork, Elysium Fields,
Giant Moon, Monba, Nikki'sgoldensteed,Tomcito and War Pass
There are a high number of contenders as of this date, but that is
because most have only run 8.5f. If the energy distribution is
less than 68%, then that means that the horse wants to go
farther. However, as the horses continue to stretch out to 9f, we
will be able to better separate horses who can only go 9f and those
that can go the 10f needed for the Derby. There is a huge
difference between 9f and 10f.
As usual, there are always more complications. Some of the horses are
running on Polytrack or some other surface, but not dirt. Some won't
run on dirt until the Derby. Perhaps just as important is the pace of
some of these races. Because the Polytrack surface races at Santa Anita
and Keeneland are run like turf races, the pace is very slow and then
quickens for a fast finish. Some of these races had extremely slow six
furlong times, then quickened at the end. Because of this type of pace,
more horses would meet our energy distribution and three furlong
criteria even though they may not be able to keep pace with a
legitimate dirt pace. The Florida Derby win by Big Brown showed how
vulnerable many of the horses will be chasing a fast pace. So while the
criteria may yield horses that run the correct way, they still need to
keep pace or they will be hopelessly over matched. Beyers and final
time may be more important this year in separating horses running on
artificial surfaces. This weekend's races should shed some light on the
contenders.
Remember that this list does not consider final times, only the last three furlong time and the median energy distribution.
I will update
these contenders as information becomes available to me.
Mr. X
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