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Kentucky Derby Analysis 2006 (Continued)
by Mr. X  

Contenders as of April 29, 2006

Here is a list of 3rd group Kentucky Derby Future Wager contenders based on 3f final time and energy distribution.  There was no consideration of final time.  I have split the group into Tier I who make the cut, Tier II who are close but have some doubts, Questionables, and the Throwouts (those that have shown that they do not want to go 10f).  Note that some "contenders " appear on this list.  I reserve the right to bet them.  Remember that these lists are based on winning the race only.  Any of the horses could come in the money.  As we approach the Holy Day, I will post my final analysis and what I will bet.  Here is the list in lifetime earnings order as of the 4/29/06 date:

Tier I

Name Last Race Dist 3f Final Time (sec) Energy Distribution
Brother Derek 4/8/06 9f 37.0 67.38%
Barbaro 4/1/06 9f 37.7 67.89%
Sweetnorthernsaint 4/8/06 9f 36.6 66.65%
Point Determined
 4/8/06 9f 37.0 67.25%
Jazil 4/8/06 9f 37.0 66.81%

Tier II

Name Last Race Dist 3f Final Time (sec) Energy Distribution
A. P. Warrior 4/8/06 9f 37.8 67.86%
Sharp Humor 4/1/06 9f 37.9 67.98%

Sunriver (will not run)

 4/1/06 9f 37.9 67.92%

Questionables

Name Last Race Dist 3f Final Time (sec) Energy Distribution
Bluegrass Cat 4/15/06
3/18/06		 9f
8.5f		 41.4
36.9		 69.64%
66.92%

Cause to Believe

 4/8/06 9f 38.2 67.38%

Mister Triester (Scratched)

 4/8/06 9f 38.6 67.76%

Bluegrass Cat looked to be better than his last, although Pletcher shipped him to Tampa Bay which is a negative, essentially telling us that he is not his best prospect.  He did run well there against some suspect company, but in his last, he may not have liked the Keeneland surface, so we won't throw him out entirely.  Cause To Believe and Mr. Triester have  good energy distribution numbers but don't pass on the less than 38 seconds for the last three furlongs.

Throwouts
This list contains some  good contenders that look to be very good at 9f but haven't shown that they want to go any farther.  It is difficult to judge in the last three furlongs as to whether they were ahead so they walked home, and therefore, did not make the 38 second cutoff or the energy distribution.  All that aside, I will not bet any of the following to win the Kentucky Derby:

Lawyer Ron, Bob and John, Sinister Minister, Private Vow, Steppenwolfer, Keyed Entry, Showing Up, Deputy Glitters, Flashy Bull, Sacred Light, Red Raymond, Storm Treasure, and Seaside Retreat.

The final step this week is to continue to follow the workouts to see who is doing well and who likes Churchill Downs.  As noted, I will post my final selections and my bets on the day of the race.

Here are some outstanding sites for information on the Derby:

News, past performances, videos, overall great site: Kentucky Derby equidaily.com
Louisville Courier Journal Newspaper: great individual information, look at the spreadsheet Courier Journal Data Track
Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Site Derby 2006
Churchill Downs Derby Site for videos of all prep races Prep Race Videos
Daily Racing Form Kentucky Clocker Reports Daily Clocker Reports

There are many other good sites, but these are among the best.  Just follow the links here and others on the sites.  Good luck!

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