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Contenders as of April 30, 2007
As we progress toward the Derby in less than a week, there are still
many questions about who can get 10 furlongs on Derby Day. The
Keeneland Blue Grass race was a disaster. We can't use any of the
numbers from that race because of the slow pace and the ridiculous
closing times. So we are left with a Tier I group of horses that
we believe can definitely get 10 furlongs and a large group in Tier II
that may or may not be able to navigate the longer Derby race. We
need to pay attention to the workouts, particularly those at Churchill
and on the dirt at other locales (not Polytrack).
This chart was presented on Trackfacts Live!, the OTB television program (April 29),when Mr. X was one of the guests.
There are many changes, so check out the Tier I horses closely.
These horses all appear to be working well and demonstrate that
they can get the distance.
Our next real step is to see what the post position draw brings, then
the weather for the big day. On Friday night or Saturday morning,
we will post the final selections at the Doghouse Confidential.
We are having problems with the Blog, so if you don't see
something posted, click on the Doghouse Confidential at Meet Mr. X.
Tier I
| Name |
Last Race |
Dist |
3f Final Time (sec) |
Energy Distribution |
| Curlin |
4/14/07 |
9f |
37.1 |
67.06% |
| Cowtown Cat |
4/7/07 |
9f |
37.7 |
67.43% |
| Hard Spun |
3/24/07 |
9f(a) |
37.6 |
67.73% |
| Street Sense |
3/17/07 |
8.5f |
36.2 |
66.03% |
| Tiago |
4/7/07 |
9f |
36.9 |
67.10% |
Tier II
| Name |
Last Race |
Dist |
3f Final Time (sec) |
Energy Distribution |
| Any Given Saturday |
3/17/07 |
8.5f(b) |
37.3 |
67.15% |
| Circular Quay |
3/10/07 |
8.5f |
37.4 |
67.32% |
| Great Hunter |
3/3/07 |
8.5f |
37.8 |
67.27% |
| Zanjero |
3/10/07 |
8.5f |
37.3 |
66.95% |
| Liquidity |
2/3/07 |
9f(c) |
36.9 |
66.85% |
| Dominican |
3/24/07 |
8.5f |
37.6 |
67.34% |
(a) - distance and time on polytrack at Turfway Park
(b) - failed to meet both criteria at 9f Wood Memorial AQU
(c) - met criteria on date, but failed twice since at 8.5f FG and 9f SA
The
Tier II horses show some sign of being close to both of the criteria,
but really haven't shown that they can make the 10 furlongs.
Street Sense was included in Tier I because of my conviction that
he can get the 10 furlongs based on his two year old campaign as well
as other factors. Street Sense deserves to be the favorite and
the horse to beat.
Here are the horses that haven't made it that I would not bet to win and likely will leave out of all tickets:
Nobiz Like Shobiz, Sam P., Scat Daddy, Chelokee (will not run), Stormello, and Teuflesburg
Remember that this list does not consider final times, only the last
three furlong time and the median energy distribution. The next
step is the final analysis and the bet. We need to check final
times and the ability of the horses to achieve a Beyer figure of over
100, likely between 103 and 108. Of course, the workouts, the
post positions, and the weather are all critical as well. Again,
check both the Blog and click on the Doghouse Confidential for the
final analysis on Friday night or Saturday by noon.
Mr. X
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