Contenders as of April 10, 2008

Here is our second  list of primary Kentucky Derby Future Wager contenders based on 3f final time and energy distribution.  There was no consideration of final time.  I will add and subtract horses as time passes.  It looks like a number of horses in the first Tier won't make it because of graded earnings:

Tier I

Tier II

Our Tier I contender group is growing. However, it is populated with horses that have run on artificial surfaces. Given the way these races are run (slower early and fast late as in a turf race), a number of horses now qualify under our criteria. I’m not sure that some of these horses are any better than a number of horses in the “can’t make 10 furlongs group.” Remember that energy distribution is not dependent on time. It is only a comparison of relative velocities during the race. So a very slow horse could have the same energy distribution as Secretariat. However, the 38 second limit at least points us to horses that have relatively similar final times.

As we have discussed before, some horses are just not suited for 10 furlongs. They may be great at 9f, but only mediocre or bad at 10f. Lawyer Ron is a good example. I don’t think he has ever won at 10f. 

There is one exception - when a good horse who is generally the pacesetter is so much better than the rest of the field, he can overpower them with his fast pace and then continue to stretch from 9 to 10f to win. Big Brown may fit the bill. He overpowered the Florida Derby field with his fast pace. Hhis energy distribution numbers (68.28%) and his last three furlongs (38.1 seconds) both fail our criteria. It is hard to ignore a 106 Beyer when almost all of the contenders haven’t reached anywhere near that. We’ll have to wait and see what we think the pace of the Derby will be and how the contenders will “fit” that pace.

The new addition to the group is Recapturetheglory who won the Illinois Derby with a Beyer of 102 on the front end. He qualifies on all counts (another on the artificial surface), but his pace numbers do not compare to Big Brown's.

Colonel John ran what I think was a deceptively great race. He was stalled in traffic on the final turn, shuffled back, then ran to the outside and moved like a freight train to win. He reminded me of the versatility and athleticism of Barbaro with a long, beautiful stride. Right now, he is at the head of my class.

Court Vision was a major disappointment. Mott entered the rabbit that did his job in softening up War Pass. Court Vision needed to advance his Beyer to around 100 in his second start of the season. He made a major move on the turn, then seemed to flatten out and closed to third, almost by default. We know that the track had significant moisture and was very tiring. But Court Vision’s setup was as good as it gets. Maybe he just isn’t good enough. What is very puzzling to me is how Garrett Gomez could make such a mistake in leaving Colonel John in favor of Court Vision. Gomez did say that Court Vision did not like the track and slipped a couple of times.

The Wood Memorial was a disaster. The numbers are so slow for all of the finishers that I can’t imagine anyone from that race winning the Derby. The only exception is perhaps Court Vision based on Gomez’ handicapping ability, but I really don’t think so.

I will update these contenders as information becomes available to me. 

Mr. X

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