Kentucky Derby Analysis 2007 (Continued)
by Mr. X  

Contenders as of March 31, 2007

Here is a list of primary Kentucky Derby Future Wager contenders based on 3f final time and energy distribution.  There was no consideration of final time.  I will add and subtract horses as time passes.  What is interesting are the horses that are missing from the list because they have not shown that they want to run longer.  They may be added in the future, but this is the list in alphabetical order as of the above date:

Tier I

Name Last Race Dist 3f Final Time (sec) Energy Distribution
Any Given Saturday 3/17/07 8.5f 37.3 67.23%
Circular Quay 3/10/07 8.5f 37.4 67.32%
Cobalt Blue 3/17/01 8.5f 37.9 67.28%
Curlin 3/17/07 8.5f 37.9 67.62%
Great Hunter 3/3/07 8.5f 37.8 67.26%
Hard Spun - added 3/24/07 9f 37.6 67.73%
Liquidity 3/3/07 9f 36.9 66.85%
Ravel - injured 2/3/07 9f 36.3 66.38%
Street Sense 3/17/07 8.5f 36.7 66.68%
Zanjero 3/10/07 8.5f 37.2 66.76%

Tier II

Name Last Race Dist 3f Final Time (sec) Energy Distribution
Imawildandcrazyguy 2/10/07 8.5f 38.2 67.86%
Notional 3/31/07
Scat Daddy 3/31/07 9f 38 68.09%
Summer Doldrums 2/10/07 8.5f 38.2 67.51%
The Tier II horses show some sign of being close to both of the criteria, but really haven't shown that they can make the list yet.

Here are the horses that haven't made it that I would consider contenders at this date:
Nobiz Like Shobiz, Sam P., Scat Daddy (now Tier II), Chelokee, Stormello, and Teuflesburg - out
There are a high number of contenders as of this date, but that is because most have only run 8.5f.  If the energy distribution is less than 68%, then that  means that the horse wants to go farther.  However, as the horses continue to stretch out to 9f, we will be able to better separate horses who can only go 9f and those that can go the 10f needed for the Derby.  There is a huge difference between 9f and 10f.

Remember that this list does not consider final times, only the last three furlong time and the median energy distribution.

I will update these contenders as information becomes available to me.  In any event, I will update the entire group again at the third Future Wager Pool time.  Good luck, and may the horse be with you!

Mr. X