|
Contenders as of March 31, 2007
Here is a list of
primary Kentucky Derby Future Wager contenders based on 3f final time
and energy distribution. There was no consideration of final
time. I will add and subtract horses as time passes. What
is interesting are the horses that are missing from the list because
they have not shown that they want to run longer. They may be
added in the future, but this is the list in alphabetical order as of
the above date:
Tier I
| Name |
Last Race |
Dist |
3f Final Time (sec) |
Energy Distribution |
| Any Given Saturday |
3/17/07 |
8.5f |
37.3 |
67.23% |
| Circular Quay |
3/10/07 |
8.5f |
37.4 |
67.32% |
| Cobalt Blue |
3/17/01 |
8.5f |
37.9 |
67.28% |
| Curlin |
3/17/07 |
8.5f |
37.9 |
67.62% |
| Great Hunter |
3/3/07 |
8.5f |
37.8 |
67.26% |
| Hard Spun - added |
3/24/07 |
9f |
37.6 |
67.73% |
| Liquidity |
3/3/07 |
9f |
36.9 |
66.85% |
| Ravel - injured |
2/3/07 |
9f |
36.3 |
66.38% |
| Street Sense |
3/17/07 |
8.5f |
36.7 |
66.68% |
| Zanjero |
3/10/07 |
8.5f |
37.2 |
66.76% |
Tier II
| Name |
Last Race |
Dist |
3f Final Time (sec) |
Energy Distribution |
| Imawildandcrazyguy |
2/10/07 |
8.5f |
38.2 |
67.86% |
| Notional |
3/31/07
2/10/07 |
9f
8.5f |
38
38 |
68.05%
67.75% |
| Scat Daddy |
3/31/07 |
9f |
38 |
68.09% |
| Summer Doldrums |
2/10/07 |
8.5f |
38.2 |
67.51% |
The
Tier II horses show some sign of being close to both of the criteria,
but really haven't shown that they can make the list yet.
Here are the horses that haven't made it that I would consider contenders at this date:
Nobiz Like Shobiz, Sam P., Scat Daddy (now Tier II), Chelokee, Stormello, and Teuflesburg - out
There are a high number of contenders as of this date, but that is
because most have only run 8.5f. If the energy distribution is
less than 68%, then that means that the horse wants to go
farther. However, as the horses continue to stretch out to 9f, we
will be able to better separate horses who can only go 9f and those
that can go the 10f needed for the Derby. There is a huge
difference between 9f and 10f.
Remember that this list does not consider final times, only the last three furlong time and the median energy distribution.
I will update
these contenders as information becomes available to me. In any
event, I will update the entire group again at the third Future Wager
Pool time. Good luck, and may the horse be with you!
Mr. X
More
|
