Triple Crown Post Analysis 2006

After reviewing all of the results for the three races, it is difficult to say that we could have done any better in picking the horses.  Either our first or second choice won all three races:

Race Mr. X Choice Finish Payoff Comments
Kentucky Derby Barbaro - 1 Won $14.60 Hit $50 to win ($355).
Jazil - 2 4th (tie) All five top finishers met energy distribution, final 3 furlong time.
Preakness Barbaro - 1 Dnf Injured, did not finish.
Bernadini -2 Won $27.80 Hit Pik4 for half of $1620.
Belmont Stakes Sunriver - 1 3rd Hit exacta three times at $92 each by boxing four choices.
Jazil - 2 Won $14.60 All four choices finished 1-2-3-4.  Did not box triple, superfecta.

Betting the races correctly is another matter.  In the Kentucky Derby we picked Barbaro to win, but we didn't include Bluegrass Cat in the $10 exacta boxes that cost us dearly.  At least I should have bet Barbaro in  exacta boxes with ALL instead of the win bet.  That would have meant $1200 instead of the $355.  However, note that the top five horses met our criteria.  The other interesting point is that we figured Jazil for second.  He showed us that he was a superior horse by winning the Belmont.

In the Preakness, we had the unfortunate breakdown of Barbaro who eventually had to be put down.  What a great horse with amazing character.  There is no doubt that Barbaro and Bernadini would have made the exacta box which was our big bet on the race.  I did have the Pik3 and collected over $800 with Bernadini paying $27.80.  Albertrani moving the horse quickly from one mile to a mile and three-sixteenths in a major triple crown race should have been a tipoff.

In the Belmont Stakes, we had all four of our choices finish 1-2-3-4.  Unfortunately, my big bets were based on Sunriver coming either first or second, so you know he came in third.  We did hit a $92 exacta three times but missed out the bigger payoffs in the triple and superfecta when we didn't box the four horses.

We can't do better picking the horses.  I can't remember that I ever collected on all three races as we did here.  However, the betting is the key.  You need to think differently about the wagers with so many horses in the field.  Boxing three or four horses is likely the way to go in big fields.  We need to improve our betting and spread more.

Let's hope we can do as well or better this year!

Mr. X