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Contenders as of April 29, 2010
Here is the chart updated with the new horses and the scratches.
Remember, there is no regard for final time in these tiers, only
whether the horses appear to want to go 10f.
Most notable is that the new horses are no great shakes. The filly,
Devil May Care, failed our tests, and we believe that she is a 9f horse
and won't get the distance.
I have also included a chart of the horses by post and tier to give you an indication where they all fit.
Looks like really bad weather. Heavy rains throughout the day. With the
favorites in the 1 and 20 holes and the mud, we could have a chaos
race. Check the Doghouse for final analysis and review, likely Saturday
morning.
Here is the chart with the explanations of the Tiers at the top:
| Tier
I - Horses that appear to be able to go 10f based on energy
distribution of less than 68% and less than 38 seconds in the last
three furlongs of a 9f race on dirt |
| Awesome Act |
Mission Impazible |
| Ice Box |
American Lion |
| Conveyance |
|
Tier II - Horses that may have made the grade on synthetics or at less than 9f, chance
|
| Sidney's Candy |
Homeboykris |
| Dean's Kitten |
Paddy O' Prado |
| Jackson Bend |
Stately Victor |
| Lookin At Lucky |
Noble's Promise |
Tier III - Horses that appear to be unable to go 10f and cannot win
|
| Devil May Care |
Dublin |
| Discreetly Mine |
Super Saver |
| Line of David |
Backtalk |
| Make Music for Me |
|
136TH KENTUCKY DERBY By Post and Tier
|
PP
|
|
HORSE
|
|
TRAINER
|
|
JOCKEY
|
|
ODDS
|
TIER
|
|
1
|
|
Lookin at Lucky
|
|
Bob Baffert
|
|
Garrett Gomez
|
|
3-1
|
II
|
|
2
|
|
Ice Box
|
|
Nick Zito
|
|
Jose Lezcano
|
|
10-1
|
I
|
|
3
|
|
Noble's Promise
|
|
Ken McPeek
|
|
Willie Martinez
|
|
12-1
|
II
|
|
4
|
|
Super Saver
|
|
Todd Pletcher
|
|
Calvin Borel
|
|
15-1
|
X
|
|
5
|
|
Line of David
|
|
John Sadler
|
|
Rafael Bejarano
|
|
30-1
|
X
|
|
6
|
|
Stately Victor
|
|
Mike Maker
|
|
Alan Garcia
|
|
30-1
|
II
|
|
7
|
|
American Lion
|
|
Eoin Harty
|
|
David Flores
|
|
30-1
|
I
|
|
8
|
|
Dean's Kitten
|
|
Mike Maker
|
|
Robby Albarado
|
|
50-1
|
II
|
|
9
|
|
Make Music for Me
|
|
Alexis Barba
|
|
Joel Rosario
|
|
50-1
|
X
|
|
10
|
|
Paddy O'Prado
|
|
Dale Romans
|
|
Kent Desormeaux
|
|
20-1
|
II
|
|
11
|
|
Devil May Care
|
|
Todd Pletcher
|
|
John Velazquez
|
|
10-1
|
X
|
|
12
|
|
Conveyance
|
|
Bob Baffert
|
|
Martin Garcia
|
|
12-1
|
I
|
|
13
|
|
Jackson Bend
|
|
Nick Zito
|
|
Mike Smith
|
|
15-1
|
II
|
|
14
|
|
Mission Impazible
|
|
Todd Pletcher
|
|
Rajiv Maragh
|
|
20-1
|
I
|
|
15
|
|
Discreetly Mine
|
|
Todd Pletcher
|
|
Javier Castellano
|
|
30-1
|
X
|
|
16
|
|
Awesome Act
|
|
Jeremy Noseda
|
|
Julien Leparoux
|
|
10-1
|
I
|
|
17
|
|
Dublin
|
|
D. Wayne Lukas
|
|
Terry Thompson
|
|
12-1
|
X
|
|
18
|
|
Backtalk
|
|
Tom Amoss
|
|
Miguel Mena
|
|
50-1
|
X
|
|
19
|
|
Homeboykris
|
|
Richard Dutrow
|
|
Ramon Dominguez
|
|
50-1
|
II
|
|
20
|
|
Sidney's Candy
|
|
John Sadler
|
|
Joe Talamo
|
|
5-1
|
II
|
Make sure you check out Mike Welsh's workout
analysis at drf.com. He does a great job. Pay attention to the horses
that can run in the mud. It will be very difficult to find the winner.
Check back for the final analysis.
Mr. X
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